To date, my T212 ISA has had £40k deposits in 14 months, is at £48.6k right now and an IRR of 42-47% (depending on Hormuz daily variations).
The question is, could I simply have bought an index fund and done any better for a lot less stress, time and effort?
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| T212 ISA after 14 months and 100+ trades. |
Index ETFs
I wondered, what would have happened if I had simply invested in one of my favourite ETFs:
SWDA - MSCI Core world
EQQQ - NASDAQ 100
IUKD - Good quality, UK dividend-paying companies with steady profits
EQQQ - NASDAQ 100
IUKD - Good quality, UK dividend-paying companies with steady profits
ChatGPT worked out that just investing in SWDA would have returned an IRR of 34%.
Swing trading
But then I asked ChatGPT to simulate swing trading between these three ETFs over the last 14 months and this is what it returned. The result was rather surprising...
Step-by-Step Execution & Portfolio Value Growth
1. Capture the Initial UK Value Surge (April 2025 – August 2025)
- The Move: Put the initial £20,000 entirely into IUKD.
- The Rationale: During the spring and early summer of 2025, sticky interest rates caused UK banking and financial dividend stocks to skyrocket. Meanwhile, tech (EQQQ) experienced a steep valuation reset.
- Portfolio Value at End of Phase: £23,150 (IUKD surged ~15.75% from 740p to 856p).
2. Ride the Broad Global Recovery (August 2025 – December 2025)
- The Move: Liquidate all IUKD holdings at the August peak and move 100% of the funds into SWDA.
- The Rationale: By late summer, global market breadth widened. SWDA outpaced both the UK market and the tech sector, steadily climbing from 8,980p to 9,758p (~8.6% gain) as corporate earnings cleared expectations.
- Portfolio Value at End of Phase: £25,140.
3. Rotate and Double-Down on US Tech (December 2025 – April 2026)
- The Move: Liquidate SWDA at the end of December. Move all £25,140 into EQQQ. On 7 April 2026, deploy your second £20,000 deposit directly into EQQQ alongside it.
- The Rationale: The first four months of 2026 saw an aggressive US tech supercycle. EQQQ dominated the field, surging roughly 17.7% in a matter of months, outstripping broad global trackers.
- Portfolio Value at End of Phase: £53,130 (Your initial cash stack grew to ~£29,590, combined with the immediately appreciated second deposit).
4. Lock in Gains with Global Diversification (April 2026 – June 2026)
- The Move: Sell all EQQQ holdings in late April and pivot the entire £53,130 back into SWDA for the final stretch.
- The Rationale: Tech valuations became heavily extended by May 2026, leading to a rotation out of growth and back into diversified global equities. SWDA rose from 9,840p to 10,540p (~7.1%), shielding capital from tech volatility.
- Ending Portfolio Value (June 2026): ~£56,900.
Strategy Financial Summary
This aggressive monthly rotation framework would have pushed your final capital stack far beyond any single buy-and-hold index strategy:
| Rotation Strategy | Capital Deployed | Simulated Final Value | Implied Strategy IRR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimal ETF Switching Plan | £40,000 | £56,900 | ~67.2% |
| Your Active Stock Portfolio | £40,000 | £53,150 | 47.0% |
| SWDA Buy-and-Hold | £40,000 | £50,780 | 34.5% |
So instead of making 100's of trades in my ISA and spending 100's of hours researching companies and watching YT videos and reading Reuters news bulletins, etc. I could have simply made four switches, just buying a single ETF.
In fact, I prefer EQGB (hedged) rather than EQQQ, so I asked ChatGPT to re-calculate for EQGB instead of EQQQ...
Updated Switching Plan Sequence (with EQGB)
[Apr 2025 - Aug 2025] [Aug 2025 - Dec 2025] [Dec 2025 - Apr 2026] [Apr 2026 - Jun 2026]
100% in IUKD 100% in SWDA 100% in EQGB 100% in SWDA
(UK Dividend Surge) (Global Momentum Play) (Pure Tech - No FX Drag) (Late-Stage Defensive)
- Phase 1 (Apr 2025 – Aug 2025): Deploy the initial £20,000 into IUKD. Capital grows to £23,150.
- Phase 2 (Aug 2025 – Dec 2025): Pivot 100% into SWDA to capture the broad global expansion. Capital grows to £25,140.
- Phase 3 (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026): Move the £25,140 into EQGB and deposit your second £20,000 directly into EQGB on 7 April 2026. Because the pound strengthened, EQGB outpaces unhedged EQQQ by saving the ~3.8% currency haircut. Phase ends at £54,340 (vs. £53,130 with EQQQ).
- Phase 4 (Apr 2026 – Jun 2026): Rotate the entire £54,340 back into SWDA to shield against late-stage tech volatility. Final portfolio concludes at ~£58,200.
How could I predict the times to switch?
So I asked ChatGPT how I could have predicted when and how to switch...
Phase 2 Transition (August 2025): From IUKD to SWDA
- The Macro & World Events: In late summer 2025, the Bank of England (BoE) enacted a surprise interest rate cut as UK inflation cooled faster than forecasted. This severely compressed net interest margins for UK banks and financials—the heavy weights driving IUKD. Concurrently, global corporate earnings in Europe and Asia rebounded, signaling it was time to broaden exposure into the globally diversified SWDA. [1]
- The FX Rate Changes: The pound began a temporary softening cycle against global currencies in August, meaning unhedged global assets inside SWDA gained a tailwind when priced back into GBP.
- The Technical Indicators: A Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart would have shown IUKD crossing into deeply "overbought" territory (above 70) on the weekly chart. Simultaneously, a Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossover on the daily chart signaled that UK dividend momentum had peaked, while SWDA cleanly crossed above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). [1]
Phase 3 Transition (December 2025): From SWDA to EQGB
- The Macro & World Events: December 2025 was defined by major US policy clarity. The Federal Reserve explicitly signaled a dovish pivot for 2026, triggering an aggressive capital rush into long-duration growth assets. Tech giants announced massive capital expenditure expansions for next-generation infrastructure, sparking a US tech supercycle that left broad global indices (SWDA) behind.
- The FX Rate Changes: This policy shift caused a structural weakening of the US dollar. The GBP/USD rate surged rapidly toward $1.34. Watching this FX breakout was the direct cue to bypass unhedged EQQQ and buy the hedged EQGB to insulate your tech gains from the falling dollar. [1, 2]
- The Technical Indicators: An ETF Ratio Chart (calculating the price of EQGB divided by SWDA) showed a definitive technical breakout. The ratio line crossed above its 200-day Moving Average on heavy volume, confirming that US tech was officially entering a period of prolonged structural outperformance over general global equities.
EQGB / SWDA Ratio Chart (Conceptual)
Ratio Line
^ / (Tech Supercycle Breakout - Dec 2025)
| /
| _________/
|--------------------/------------------- 200-Day Moving Average
|___________________/____________________> Time
Phase 4 Transition (April 2026): From EQGB to SWDA
- The Macro & World Events: By April 2026, extreme tech valuations created severe market concentration risks, prompting institutional asset managers to actively lock in profits. Escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain friction in East Asia caused a flight to safety. Capital rotated out of high-beta tech and into defensive, cash-generating global conglomerates found in SWDA.
- The FX Rate Changes: The GBP/USD exchange rate flattened out and hit a major psychological resistance level near $1.35, signaling that the maximum benefit of holding the currency-hedged EQGB vehicle over unhedged alternatives had run its course. [1]
- The Technical Indicators: A classic Moving Average Ribbon contraction would have signaled the exit. EQGB’s price fell below its short-term 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for three consecutive trading sessions. This breakdown, paired with an RSI divergence (where the index made a new price high but the RSI indicator made a lower high), served as a warning to rotate capital back into defensive global benchmarks.
The future?
I asked ChatGPT to look at the current technical indicators and predict the next 60 days, assuming the Hormuz Straits were open and oil prices drop.
60-Day Forward Estimates & Performance Projections
1. IUKD (iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF)
- Macro Impact: Highly negative. The iShares UK Dividend ETF is heavily exposed to FTSE 100 oil majors (BP, Shell) and materials companies. A sudden drop in global oil prices will severely impact these companies' earnings and cash flows, directly dragging down the index.
- Technical Setup: A drop in oil will accelerate the breakdown below the 50-day SMA, forcing a test of the lower support range.
- 60-Day Performance Estimate: 📉 -6.0% to -8.5%
2. SWDA (iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF)
- Macro Impact: Net neutral to slightly positive. Lower oil prices act as a direct tax cut for global consumers, lowering manufacturing input costs and boosting generic global corporate earnings. However, because SWDA holds unhedged global currencies, a weakening US Dollar converts back into fewer British Pounds, flattening some of the raw equity index gains.
- Technical Setup: The 200-day SMA will act as an ironclad floor. Upward momentum from consumer sectors will counterbalance energy drags and currency friction, keeping the asset in a safe, horizontal trading band.
- 60-Day Performance Estimate: ↔️ +1.5% to +3.0%
3. EQGB (Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 GBP Hedged)
- Macro Impact: Hyper-positive. Historically, technology and growth stocks benefit tremendously from falling input/energy costs, which alleviate broader macro inflation pressures. Crucially, because you are using the GBP-hedged variant (EQGB), the index's underlying growth is entirely shielded from the weakening US Dollar. You capture pure, unadulterated US technology upside.
- Technical Setup: The current oversold RSI (33) represents a classic technical spring. The combination of macro relief and cheap valuations will trigger a strong technical bounce back above the short-term EMA ribbons.
- 60-Day Performance Estimate: 🚀 +8.0% to +11.5%
Summary of Next 60 Days
Under your specific assumptions, EQGB is the clear tactical winner. By removing the USD currency drag, it is positioned to fully absorb the positive macro shock of lower energy costs, while energy-heavy income trackers like IUKD face immediate downside.
So ChatGPT thinks that EQGB is the best. This is very USA-centric, of course, so if you wanted a general portfolio, you might want to also hold SWDA (or HMWS) in large amounts too.
My T212 ISA is my 'high gain' account which I use for high-gain, higher-risk trading. Since I don't want an ETF on which I might have to calculate ERI, I will buy EQQD in my GIA which has zero ERI to worry about as it is a synthetic ETF and use EQGB or EQQQ inside my ISA.
It will be interesting to see how well these perform in the next two months.
Technicals
ChatGPT suggested using TradingView website for research, e.g. to compare two ETFs just use a formula instead of a single ticker...
To monitor whether Korean equities (CSKR / IKOR) will begin outperforming the Nasdaq-100 (EQGB), you must track the Ratio Chart
(LSE:CSKR * 100) / LSE:EQGB on TradingView. Standard technical indicators applied to this specific ratio line will reveal macro momentum shifts.
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Using a formula to compare two ETfs - (LSE:CSKR * 100) / LSE:EQGB |
This chart shows EQGB has outperformed Korea two weeks ago but is now recovering. The Korea ETFs are very strong on Samsung and Hynix (disks and memory). An upward line shows Korea is stronger, a downward trend shows EQGB was stronger.
You can also compare EQGB vs EQQQ to show you the current USD Fx trend and if a hedged ETF would be better than an unhedged one. For long-term investment an unhedged fund is usually better because the TER is lower.
The following guide details which critical technicals to monitor, how to configure them on TradingView and what specific triggers to watch for.
1. The Trend Filter: 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) [1]
The 200-day SMA is the definitive indicator for identifying long-term structural regime shifts between asset classes.
- How to add it: Click Indicators at the top of the chart → Search for Moving Average Simple → Open its settings, change the Length to
200, and set the Source toClose. [1, 2, 3] - What to look for:
- Bearish Korea Trend: If the ratio line lives below the 200 SMA, the Nasdaq is dominantly outperforming. Ignore Korean ETFs.
- The Bullish Trigger: Watch for the ratio line to cross and close above the 200 SMA. If the 200 SMA line itself stops sloping downward and begins flattening out or curling upward, it confirms a structural shift out of US mega-cap tech and into Korean cyclicals. [1, 2, 3]
2. The Momentum Confirmation: MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The MACD filters out daily price noise on the ratio chart to show whether institutional capital is actively rotating into a specific region.
- How to add it: Click Indicators → Search and select MACD. Keep the default settings (
12, 26, 9). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] - What to look for:
- Bullish Crossover: Watch for the blue MACD line to cross above the orange Signal line while beneath the center zero-axis. This signals early-stage accumulation of Korean equities relative to the Nasdaq.
- Centerline Breakout: The strongest confirmation occurs when both the MACD and Signal lines cross above the 0 center line. This indicates that Korea's outperformance has shifted from a temporary bounce into a sustained, high-momentum trend. [1, 2]
The RSI measures velocity and price changes. Rather than looking for standard "overbought" or "oversold" levels, look for structural divergences to spot when a trend is exhausting. [1, 2, 3]
- How to add it: Click Indicators → Search and select Relative Strength Index. Keep the default length of
14. [1, 2, 3] - What to look for (Bullish Divergence):
- Watch for a scenario where the ratio line makes a lower low (meaning the Nasdaq is dealing a final crushing blow to Korea's relative performance), but the RSI indicator simultaneously forms a higher low.
- This divergence indicates that the Nasdaq's downward pressure on the ratio is losing structural velocity, typically preceding a sharp trend reversal back in favor of Korea. [1]
📝 Summary Checklist for Your TradingView Workspace
| Technical Indicator [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] | TradingView Input Setting | Bullish Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Ratio Chart Base | (LSE:CSKR * 100) / LSE:EQGB | Ratio line slopes upward |
| Long-Term Trend | Simple Moving Average (Length: 200) | Ratio line crosses and holds above the 200 SMA |
| Trend Velocity | MACD (12, 26, 9) | MACD lines cross above the 0 centerline |
| Trend Exhaustion | RSI (Length: 14) | Higher lows on RSI while Ratio line makes lower lows |
Conclusion
By plotting a simple ratio chart, I can easily see trending performances - e.g. between SWDA and EQGB (MSCI Core world vs. NASDAQ 100).
This shows that since April, switching from SWDA to EQGB would have been preferable.
Switching funds will trigger a taxable event, so it is best done inside an ISA or SIPP.
Switching inside a GIA will trigger a capital gain and so any tax loss must be considered. This means if you day- or swing-trade inside a GIA, you will need to outperform a buy-and-hold ETF by approx 20% to do any better.
IUKD, SWDA and EQQQ/EQGB are my main core ETFs. I tend to bypass CSP1 (S&P500). Their performance can be compared and ChatGPT can give you a useful steer.
According to ChatGPT, just three switches inside my ISA over a period of 14 months would have improved my IRR from my portfolio best of 47% to 67% (if I had switched at exactly the right time). If I just bought and held SWDA, my IRR would still have been a respectable 34%.
I am not the sort of person to watch technicals, I like to hold a steady world core, some satellite ETFs and then have some fun buying 'picks-and-shovels' companies to see if I can beat the market.
However, the technicals indicate that UK stocks are underperforming, core MSCI is steady but NASDAQ is showing signs of outperformance. Depending on your investment style, you must make your own decisions on what action you decide to take, but if had followed ChatGPT's advice rather than simply held MSCI Core world like SWDA, I would have doubled my gain!
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