Overall I am up £8k this Saturday morning after a very good week due to good tech stock reports this week. Over 300 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 have now reported their latest quarterly results.
Overall, I am now £43k up after 26 months of building up my accounts (£140k total deposits) and they are showing pretty good IRRs. It would be a shame to feel the effects of a market collapse now!
Invest IRR is 91% (49% last 12 months) ISA IRR is 45% (46% last 12 months)
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| GIA (£100k deposited) and ISA (£40k deposited) accounts |
I have top-sliced some of my shares, including Moderna, Sandisk, WDC, Seagate and AMD and I now have £18k in cash ready to buy on the next dip.
These are my current holdings (ignore the green/pink colours - just look at the ticker and the size of the boxes)
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| ISA Holdings |
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| Invest GIA holdings |
USD\GBP Fx rate
The dollar is getting weaker against the pound. I see this trend continuing. This means I will look at buying hedged USD-heavy ETFs rather than unhedged USD-heavy ETFs (e.g. I will buy EQGB rather than EQQQ).
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| Projected Fx rates for next 3 months - can you see a trend? |
What am I buying now?
I don't see the Hormuz or Ukraine situation ending any time soon. Inflation in the US is rising and prices of goods are thus rising.
Defence stock gains are mostly priced in now. Tech stocks are overpriced. The US gov is printing $USD and throwing it at onshoring companies. Canada trade restrictions may affect the USA a lot more thus year and Europe is turning away from American goods and investments. This will strengthen non-USD countries. When the oil and gas eventually comes back via Hormuz (or via pipelines) the price will plummet and the USA fossil fuel sales will suffer greatly.
For the moment, I am top-slicing profits my USA companies (some of my holdings are 200% up!) so that I have cash ready to buy on the next dip.The partial selling mid-week had caused me to miss the last few days rise on AMD and Intel, but that is a price I am willing to pay to lock in some profits before everyone else has the same idea.
My crash plan
Everyone should have a 'crash plan' - i.e. what would they do if the market starts to crash?
For my ISA, I intend to quickly sell all my stocks except for my all world/global ETFs and the metal/miner stocks. I will sell my USA tech companies (but hold onto Korean/Taiwan/Japanese companies).
For the Invest GIA account, I will look at selling USA Tech companies only. The problem is this will crystallise a taxable gain so I need to be cautious about selling if the share price is going to recover later. It is not an easy choice here, so I may just sell enough to get my share cost back and leave the profit in as shares.
Approx £23k of my Invest GIA is in world ETFs which I will just hold onto and ride out the correction.
To jump back into the USA market quickly after a dip, I will buy EQGB, the hedged NASDAQ ETF.
How to catch a falling knife!
One trick I have used with success in the past is to 'catch a falling knife'. This really should be done only inside an ISA or SIPP account because capital gains tax would be payable in a GIA. It goes like this...
2. Sell it quickly.
3. Wait for the price to go down 10%.
4. Buy it back again even if the price is still dropping.
This means I have lowered the cost price of those shares. They may keep going down, but I am not trying to buy at the bottom, I just want to save that 10% on some shares that I would just have held onto.
As always, this is not investment advice, it is just how I am thinking.
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