T212 Portfolio 201k update + thoughts on the USA, etc.

My two T212 accounts together have finally broken the £200k barrier (£150k deposited over 30 months)! It probably won't last but it's still nice to see. My IRRs are now 50% for my Trading 212 Stocks ISA and 90% for my Invest account.

Semiconductor gains have been variable but my metals holdings (gold, silver, rare earths, copper, etc.) seems to finally be on the rise after being undervalued for months.

£51k up!     Deposits: £110k + £40k

  

Trading this week

I had some cash in my ISA and decided to top up Corning (which is still sitting at a loss), MP Materials (on the up) and Western Digital (already in profit).

Outlook for this month

I am becoming increasingly worried by Trump and his minions. His shenanigans seem to be completely illegal to me, he is delaying his remaining court cases (those that he has not managed to make himself immune from prosecution) rather than actually defending them and the USA national debt is now at over $40 Trillion. USA is selling it's gold, no one wants USA bonds and China is buying gold while it is on sale - as are many banks around the world.

Expenditure on AI seems to be exploding (but it seems pension companies and private equity are being asked to stick their necks out and take the risk, not the banks or AI companies themselves). Also, HP, Dell and Lenovo server sales seem to be increasing, which may indicate that many large corporates are building their own AI data resources rather than relying on a third-party to bill them for expensive and haphazard tokens or simply deny them access on the whim of a government.

Worst case, I can foresee Trump being impeached and he and his legal 'team' and cronies imprisoned. His many accounts will be seized and his Acts and Executive orders reversed (if anyone grows a backbone and stands up for the people). This would cause a massive dip (albeit temporarily) in USA shares and a weak dollar. I am beginning to think that many people are aware of this and that he is getting away with it because the USA is 'too big to fail' just like the banks were 'too big to fail' and, as in the case of HSBC, many people are 'Too big to Jail' (#ad for book by Chris Blackhurst)!

I am very cautious about USA AI companies and Tech stocks. I try to buy only Picks and Shovels companies that have good forward order books and are still good value. Currently memory and disk manufacturers seem to fit that category. Gradually, I want to balance my holdings with more UK and EU stocks which offer good value and have some protection from the USA economy.

One problem I have at the moment is that I will have quite a large capital gains tax bill next year because I have sold quite a few shares in my Invest GIA this year already (due to the volatility caused by Trump, etc.). I guess it's a nice problem to have but I will now try to hold more index ETFs in my GIA and trade only within my ISA. However, £30k of my GIA is still as uncrystalised gains and only £5k of that is in ETFs.

At the moment, it feels like a game of Jenga crossed with the fable of 'The Emporer's new clothes'. 

We are on a roller-coaster and approaching the crest of the ride, we must prepare for the descent and not stick our heads in the sand (how many more synonyms can I fit into this blog)!

Stocks that will be worth holding in a crisis include:

• Major oil / gas producers
• Gold and copper miners
• Big staple brands
• Large pharma / healthcare
• Utility monopolies
• Infrastructure operators

These will be worth buying if their price (value) is good.

Current holdings and proportions

Here is a picture of my current Invest holdings as of Saturday 15th August 2026 (ignore the colours - just look at the relative sizes of the blocks):

T212 Invest portfolio

and my ISA holdings:

T212 ISA portfolio

I am hoping that Hynix, Samsung and the miners will grow and may take profits (esp. within the ISA) should things start to look 'wobbly'.

There are a lot of stocks and this is deliberate as I have other accounts which hold the boring index tracker ETFs - these accounts were supposed to be my experimental accounts but have grown so much they have now become serious! If you are beginning your investment journey, do not follow these investments - put most of your money into a global index tracker ETF like HMWS (SWDA). If you really want to risk investing in companies, only gamble with 10% or less of your pot of cash!

Remember the two golden rules of my Investment Club:

My two Investment Club rules

Rule 1: Don't lose money

Rule 2: Don't forget Rule 1

Rule 1 means only invest in something which will go up (given time). If you invest in something that could go down and never recover, then avoid it.

If a stock goes down by 50%, it needs to go up by 100% to just break even - not many stocks go up 100%!

The Complete Loss-Recovery Table

Here's the full picture of how losses scale. Notice how the relationship becomes increasingly exponential:

5%   loss → 5.3% recovery needed

10% loss → 11.1% recovery needed

15% loss → 17.6% recovery needed

20% loss → 25.0% recovery needed

25% loss → 33.3% recovery needed

30% loss → 42.9% recovery needed

35% loss → 53.8% recovery needed

40% loss → 66.7% recovery needed

45% loss → 81.8% recovery needed

50% loss → 100.0% recovery needed

60% loss → 150.0% recovery needed

70% loss → 233.3% recovery needed

80% loss → 400.0% recovery needed

90% loss → 900.0% recovery needed

95% loss → 1,900.0% recovery needed

Personally, I set the line at a 20% loss. If a stock drops more than 20% and there is no reason to think it will recover in the next month or so, then I cut my losses and sell. This has only happened to me a few times (though I must admit there were a few times when I didn't sell and the stock went to zero!). So now I am careful not to gamble and to cut my losses at 20%. So far it seems to be working.

Should we invest in Trump Meme coins dear?

If you have to ask yourself the question 'Do I feel lucky' then investing is not for you. If you ask the question 'am I 95% certain that this stock will go up in value even if I have to wait a year?' and also 'What are the chances this stock will go down more than 20%?' then you can play a role in my new AI-generated film co-starring with Sid James and Hattie Jacques (both sadly deceased) -  carry on investing!

As an example of an exception however, I have been steadily DCAing into SK Hynix since mid-June 2026 (having sold for 100% profit in early June and regretted it as it carried on gaining until 23rd June)  and I am down 15%, but this is due to the local economy troubles in South Korea (too highly leveraged) - the position of Hynix in the memory market is very strong. Investors are worried about cheaper memory from China, but this is not the HBM type that Hynix make. Even if Hynix went down to -20% I would still hold on as there are strong reasons for this to recover - it's just a temporary blip specific to Korea which has now been fixed (I hope).

Note: This is not investment advice and my picks may not be suitable for you. Don't just copy some random guy on the internet like me!