Samsung and Hynix are down - massive buying opportunity!

There is a memory shortage. There will continue to be a memory shortage for at least the next 3 years. The SK Hynix and Samsung price is down 20% this week. 

Planned/announced capacity ramp (HBM/AI-memory related), as reported by recent coverage:

• SK Hynix
  • HBM-related DRAM node capacity (1c): targeting ~160,000–190,000 wafers/month (300mm) by end-2026. siliconanalysts.com
  • Near-term cleanroom expansion: “up to 70,000 wafers/month” capacity expansion expected in 2026 (from M15X upgrades / 1c conversions). semiwiki.com

• Samsung

• HBM production capacity: targeting ~250,000 wafers/month by end-2026 (reported as a ~50% ramp from ~170,000 wafers/month). trendforce.com
• HBM-related DRAM node capacity (1c): aiming for “more than 200,000 wafers/month” by end of 2026 via line conversion and additional equipment installation (for HBM/advanced DRAM use). semiwiki.com

Micron is a US manufacturer and they are down just 5% over the last week. This, together with a weakening USD/GBP rate seems to represent less of a bargain to me.

Samsung memory earnings results are expected on 30th July 2026. Expected DRAM and NAND contract prices for Q3 up at least 20%. I am expecting very good Samsung earnings at the end of the month and this will also push up Hynix.

I have been buying IKOR (dist) and CSKR (acc) at the new discount and will buy more if the price continues to go down before the end of this month.

Both Hynix an Samsung have massive expansion plans. Hynix are about to raise more finance.

As the 'cost of compute' of AI comes down due to more efficient algorithms and more  efficient CPUs, AI usage will increase, not decrease. As the cost of compute comes down and AI becomes more and more useful, demand for memory will increase - and there are only three companies who make it in any volume!