Here is the picture for my T212 ISA after the dust settled on the morning of Saturday 11th (today). Some after-hours trading saw a slight uptick and a few more green squares started to appear late on in Friday's market...
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| T212 ISA |
and my Invest GIA T212 account...
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| T212 Invest GIA |
Even the FTSE 100 was affected at 4p.m. Friday 10/10 and went down 1.3%...
Weekly progress report
The table below shows the weekly stats for the last five weeks on my T212 accounts:
T212 Accounts
Deposit Age 12 Sept. 19 Sept. 26 Sept. 03 Oct 10 Oct Result(wk) (IRR since start)
£20,000 6 mths £24,700 £25,083 £24,619 £25,225 £25,622 £416 (ISA 29% - 20k lump sum in April)
£70,000 14 mths £76,474 £78,574 £78,415 £80,057 £80,138 £142 (GIA 43% - DCA in chunks - 26k added Aug.)
So my £90K T212 accounts (£20k ISA + £70K GIA) now totals £105.7K (+£15,760 gain).
What happened?
It seems no one was expecting a tariff war between China and the US when anyone with half a brain could see that China was not the sort of country to kowtow to DJT and kiss his (finger) ring.
- China's recent export controls on rare earths and critical minerals are seen as a significant point of leverage in its trade relationship with the US.
- US tariffs on China reached 145% in April 2025, while China's tariffs on the US reached 125%, effectively hindering trade. However, in May, tariffs were temporarily reduced and some restrictions on rare earth exports were lifted.
- In October 2025, the US President threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on imports from China and restrict exports of critical software.
China's power
China exerts economic influence over the United States through various channels, particularly in trade, US Treasury holdings, and control over critical resources like rare earths and battery materials.
Trade Surplus: China is a major manufacturing hub with a long-standing trade surplus with the US, meaning it sells significantly more goods to the US than it buys. The US imported approximately $438 billion worth of goods and services from China in 2024. This trade provides US consumers with a variety of goods, including consumer electronics like smartphones and laptops, as well as footwear, apparel and toys.
US Treasuries: China has historically been a major holder of US Treasury bonds, which are considered a safe and stable investment. As of December 2024, China owned $759 billion in US Treasury securities, representing a portion of the US national debt. However, China has been steadily decreasing its holdings since 2018, reducing them to the lowest levels since May 2009 by September 2023. Some analysts speculate that China could use its Treasury holdings as leverage, but large-scale selling also carries risks for China's economy.
Gold Reserves: In recent years, China has been actively divesting from US Treasuries and increasing its gold reserves, potentially indicating a move to reduce reliance on the US dollar and possibly support its currency, the yuan. China's official gold reserves reached 2,303.5 tonnes in September 2025, after 11 consecutive months of additions.
Rare Earths and Metals: China dominates the global supply chain for rare earths and other critical minerals essential for advanced manufacturing, including defense, mobile phones, and electric vehicles.
China controls around 90% of the world's rare earth processing and 70% of the supply.
In October 2025, China tightened its export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, citing national security concerns. These controls require government approval for exports, even for products with small amounts of rare earths, and scrutinize applications related to defense and advanced semiconductors.
Batteries: China has a dominant position across the global battery supply chain. It is a leading producer of raw battery minerals like graphite and has significant investments in lithium and cobalt mining projects globally. China processes over 90% of the world's graphite and a substantial portion of cobalt and lithium. It also manufactures a large percentage of battery components and cells, holding nearly 85% of the world's battery cell production capacity by monetary value in 2022.
China has implemented export controls on certain lithium batteries and key materials, including high-end batteries and artificial graphite anodes, which are set to take effect on November 8, 2025 and Trumps paused Tariffs resume just a few days later.
What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic: Chinese factory shutdowns snarled global supply chains, harming U.S. companies dependent on Chinese parts and products.
Key market movements and affected companies
Broad Market Downturn: The threat led to a broad market sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling 2.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.9%. This reflects investor fear over escalating trade tensions.
Technology and AI Stocks: Technology stocks, especially major AI-related firms, suffered substantial losses. Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla all saw their shares fall by approximately 5%. Nvidia lost $210 billion in market valuation, following a previous tariff threat against Taiwan, which hosts major chip manufacturing facilities.
Retail and Consumer Goods: Retailers and companies in consumer goods with heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing also faced losses. Nike, Gap, Levi's and Under Armour all saw share prices drop significantly.
Chinese Tech Stocks: Chinese tech companies listed on US exchanges were also negatively impacted.
Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent, and Baidu all experienced a tumble in their share prices following the news.
Rare Earth Stocks: In contrast to the broader market, stocks of companies in the rare earths sector saw gains. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth saw their shares soar after the threat was announced, as it highlighted China's dominance and potential restriction of rare earth minerals.
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| My MP stock went up on Friday! |
Broader Market Volatility: The threat also impacted the broader market, causing volatility to spike and investors to shift to safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasury securities.
SWDA Global MSCI dropped by 1.7% on Friday.
What I did
Before the 4 p.m. correction, I had been tidying up a few of my holdings in my ISA on Friday. I had previously tried to sell SLP Sylvania Platinum three times but had cancelled it as T212 had not executed the sale even after 3 hours - however, this time I just set a Limit Sell order and eventually it sold. I made just a £63 profit for a £860 outlay (I DCA'd into SLP over a few months). The spread was quite wide, so due to that and the long time it took to sell, I don't intend to buy this back any time soon. The sell gave me some cash to potentially buy shares on Monday.
After 4 p.m. on Friday, I just sat and watched my week's gain of £3k disappear!
Buy baby, Buy!
Monday may well turn into a buying frenzy. Most stocks have gone down 1-3%. I may use the opportunity to buy at a lower price.
With tech’s trillion-dollar companies occupying an increasingly large slice of the U.S. market, their declines sent the Nasdaq down 3.6% and the S&P 500 down 2.7%. For both indexes, it was the worst day since April, when Trump said he would slap “reciprocal” duties on U.S. trading partners.
Shares of Amazon, Nvidia and Tesla each dropped around 5% on Friday, as tech’s megacaps lost $770 billion in market cap, following President Donald Trump’s threats for increased tariffs on Chinese goods. Google parent Alphabet and Facebook owner Meta fell 2% and almost 4%, respectively.
Stock market index recoveries after the April 2025 tariff correction
Following the significant market correction in April 2025, several global stock market indices showed strong recovery. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite, in particular, demonstrated the most robust rebound.
- NASDAQ Composite (US): Experienced the strongest recovery, with a 27.25% gain. The index dropped sharply in April but began to climb back after Trump announced a pause on many of the tariffs on April 9th, and again in May as US-China trade tensions cooled.
- TOPIX (Japan): Recovered strongly with a 20.13% gain. Japanese stocks benefited as investors diversified away from the US and bought into Japan on relatively cheaper valuations.
- S&P 500 (US): Posted a solid recovery of 16.32%. The index turned positive for the year by May 13th, showing a strong bounce back from its April low.
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong): Showed resilience with a 13.29% recovery. This was aided by an easing of tensions and a temporary trade truce between the US and China in May.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (US): Posted an 8.31% recovery.
- STOXX Europe 600 (Europe): Recovered by 4.54%.
What to buy?
Most affected will be Tech stocks. I will be watching the ETFs CSPX, EQQQ, IUCM and IITU/XLKQ for a large dip and try to buy at the bottom as I buy these ETFs regularly anyway.
If they look to be particularly affected (e.g. they dip by 10% or more) then I may even use some of my savings income to increase my T212 holdings.
I will be watching nVidia NVDA closely too, as the price dropped from $195 to $183 late Friday. Trades between Nvidia, Intel, AMD, OpenAI, MSFT, Google etc. all seems a bit incestuous however and I wonder if any real profit is being made or are all these deals just inflating share prices!
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| Small gains in NVDA over 3 months. |
Rare metal companies like Canadian Avalon AVL have shot up 80%, but that horse has bolted. I would rather buy rare metal companies at a low price rather than a very high one!
DJT has his eye on Canada, Greenland and Ukraine for rare earth supplies. France also have an agreement with Africa for some rare earth minerals.
October and November may be the last two high-gain months in the US market for several years. The S&P 500 is predicted to return modest annual gains in 2026 and 2027 of 4-8%/yr. US Import tariffs will start to impact retail pricing and consumer spending will tighten. The strengthening $USD rate will help UK/EU investors a bit though.
Something for the weekend, Sir?
MKA MKango Resources has gone up 20% this week and 70% this month. It is a very small company (£200M). Perhaps this is only one for those willing to take a risky bet, however? China has many fingers in many 3rd-world countries, so they can often bring government influence to bear and interfere with foreign trade in a trice!
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