The performance of global ETFs (e.g. SWDA) and S&P 500 ETFs (e.g. CSP1) so far this year has been disappointing to say the least!
It seems that bonds are not as safe as we thought either. However, it does appear that rare and precious metals are doing quite well. Two ETFs that have caught me attention are:
- GJGB - VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS
- NUCG - VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Technologies UCITS ETF A
Both of these have shown 17% and 26% gains in just the last month:
Due to the high price of gold (which I cannot see falling much in the next few months), gold miners are performing well, especially smaller companies with less overheads - hence I have picked GJGB.
Uranium has been quite consistent in following the S&P 500 but with amplified negative and positive swings. I would expect the S&P 500 to recover in the next 3-6 months and so the Uranium/Nuclear market should have an even larger positive swing. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and nuclear submarines use Uranium as will the new reactor to be built at Sizewell C. Nations are moving away from dirty coal but also don't want to rely on imported and expensive gas to fill the energy gap when solar/wind does not oblige. SMRs have the advantage that they can be built next to cities and their power only travels a short distance rather than 500 miles across the country with associated losses, etc. Natural gas prices will increase as availability decreases and nations don't like to rely on imported gas. The only currently viable solution is thus nuclear but demand for Uranium is predicted to exceed availability (Trump has ordered 10 new reactors to be started) - this means the price will rise over then next 2-3 years. The coming uranium crisis video.
I am also keeping an eye on the cost of batteries used for storage. Recent batteries produced by CATL come at a cost of $10 per kWh. 9MWh battery units will soon be available. A small town of 10,000 people might use 700MWh in a day and so several hundred units would be required just to last a few days. A storage facility for a small town would thus cost less than $1m and would be charged from excess wind/solar and the batteries should last for at least 20 years.
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