From a macroscopic viewpoint, the USA is energy-rich and is not dependent on the middle East for fossil fuels, unlike the rest of the world (Europe and Asia). DJT has managed to make fossil fuels twice as expensive and he will now walk away to leave us with a mess and potentially an expensive war.
The USA may experience a fuel price hike, but not fuel shortages. Asia however, may experience both price inflation and shortages which will affect their entire economy as their reserves run out. The US is a net exporter of petroleum and higher prices may actually benefit it. China will be wanting to do a deal for safe passage of their tankers with Iran.
Since Europe is now very dependent on China for many products, this will also affect all European economies. Bad debt is not good for European banks either.
All things considered, the Iran war could be very bad for Europe and Asia for at least the next 12 months if the Hormuz blockade continues. This will especially affect emerging markets and banks (bad debt).
However, the world will still need commodities, food, infrastructure, health care, etc.
I am still bullish on copper, gold, silver and also (long term) on Uranium/nuclear.
A useful YT video I found recently, which reviews the last quarter and discusses the future, is here...
So, if the Iran troubles continue, then investing in the US is looking more attractive, esp. the NASDAQ (EQGB/EQQQ).
My plan for 2026
TLDR: I don't really have one - so keep a good portion in cash!
I have done some tax loss harvesting and now have £20k in cash ready to put into my T212 ISA.
I am just going to wait to see how the Iran situation progresses. If it looks like the troubles are going to continue, I will be looking at investing approx. 1/3rd in the NASDAQ (if the price is good, e.g. in EQGB) and perhaps a world ETF - .e.g. HMWS (which is USA-heavy). I will still leave 2/3rds in cash (earning interest) inside the ISA.
I may also sell some more shares/ETFs from my Invest account in the next few weeks to crystalise some gains. I still have some accumulating ETFs in my Invest account and I want to sell these and buy distributing ETFs instead so that I don't have to bother working out ERI next year.
For tax loss harvesting, I sold Sage SGE, MSFT, ISDE, HIMS, PLTR, COPX, BNKE|, ICDU, HOOD, CRWD, LEU and APH. I will be looking to buy back some of these inside the ISA (bed-and-ISA) in the next few weeks (hopefully for a better price).
The shares that I am watching to buy inside my ISA are LSE, Centrica, Netflix, FLXX, Oracle, COPX, SGE, CRWD, AMD.
On the bright side, if there is a fuel shortage in the UK, those of us with BEVs will be laughing (finally).
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