Should I buy this ETF due to the forthcoming ban on TikTok?

TikTok is set to be banned in US law from the beginning of 2025 unless it changes ownership from the current Chinese Bytedance owners. If banned, will other Western countries follow suit too?

If this goes ahead, there is no similar alternative to TikTok, so advertising businesses and video businesses will then go to Instagram, Facebook (both owned by Meta as well as Threads and WhatsApp) and Google/Alphabet (YouTube).

You could therefore invest in Meta and Alphabet now, but if TikTok's Supreme Court appeal is successful, or Trump somehow quashes the ruling, then you could be looking at a large loss!

The ETF IUCM also has top holdings in Meta and Alphabet and its price has increased recently.

How to prepare for a stock market crash

Warren Buffet is accumulating a great deal of cash at the moment. After selling more of Berkshire's equity portfolio, including massive portions of its stakes in Apple (AAPL -0.52%) and Bank of America (BAC 0.72%), the company ended the third quarter with a record $325 billion in cash and Treasury bills on its balance sheet. That's up $48 billion from the previous quarter.

His trick has always been to buy good companies at a low price and hold. It seems he is getting ready to buy again which perhaps means he is expecting to see a bear run and can buy good companies at a cheaper price.

WB doesn't see much gain in top quality large companies at the moment. They seem overvalued. Small/mid-cap companies are not worth his time and effort (he could buy them all outright if he wanted with $325 billion). So I think he is expecting a bit of a correction but meanwhile is probably earning a nice 5%+ on his cash pile whilst he waits.

So what should we do if the SHTF?

ETFs for AI, Robotics and CyberSecurity

I think technology will pay a big part in modernising industry. Labour is becoming increasingly expensive while AI and robotics now have big advantages. Robots can work 24 hours a day, they don't need toilet breaks or get hangovers or go on strike. They are cheap to run and work really fast.

Self-driving cars are a distraction however. Like NASA developing rockets to get us to the moon when really the super-powers just wanted the technology to develop nuclear ICBMs, with AI and robotics, we develop this technology to then build semi-dedicated robots to replace our human workforce.

AI robots can also be good for the environment. Consider a small robot vehicle with four legs, cameras, GPS, LED lights and pincers for arms. Now train it to recognise wheat plants and weeds and set it down in your newly-planted field of wheat. It will work 24/7 in that field and de-weed it for you without pay! It will have a solar powered charging station to dock with every few hours. No weed killers needed! Now also equip it with an insecticide spray and train it to only spray wheat plants which show signs of infestation. This reduces the use and cost of insecticides and means more environmentally-friendly ones can be used.

Such devices have already been developed!

ETFs

So I am picking two ETFs for my 'risky but high returns' experimental portfolio:

Is now a good time to buy UK FTSE shares?

The FTSE 100 index stands just 15% higher than its level of 31 December 1999, representing a compound annual gain of barely 0.5% per annum. 

UK investors, insurance companies and pension companies have started to see the light and are leaving UK stocks for the shinier US market. A few UK companies are even starting to de-list from the FTSE and move over to the New York/NASDAQ stock exchanges.

However, if you discount the USA's 'Magnificent Seven', the UK has still performed quite well. Good UK companies are well diversified and pay good dividends. The UK also has some solid top performers as shown below (gains in 1 year):

• RR      Rolls Royce 67%
• NWG  NatWest Group 63%
• SMDS Smith(DS) Group 51%
• HL       Hargreaves Lansdown 49%
• BARC Barclays 48%

Which core ETF should I pick?

Many people like to have a core+satellite approach with their portfolio.

A popular choice for a core ETF is either:

1. MSCI global index ETF (SWDA)
2. MSCI global Quality index ETF (XDEQ)
3. S&P 500 index ETF (VUAA or VNRA)

For the past 5 years, the S&P 500 has shown much better returns than the MSCI global index (SWDA) however.

If we look at the performance over the last 5 years, the S&P 500 ETF VUAA has consistently performed better than SWDA or XDEQ.